Political Science Professor Michael McDonald, who studies voter turnout in the U.S., estimates 39% of the potential electorate will vote in the November 7, 2006 election. That is only about a 10% improvement, compared to November 2002, when about 36% voted. Note that “potential electorate” means all adults who could register and vote if they wished; it does not refer to the percentage of registered voters who will vote.

He notes in the Washington Post of October 31 that Iowa keeps track of the partisan affiliation of people who request absentee ballots. So far, 51.1% of the absentee voter requests in Iowa have come from registered Democrats, whereas 31.7% of them have come from registered Republicans and only 17.2% have come from registered independents. Voter registration in Iowa is almost a 3-way tie between Republicans, Democrats and independents. Therefore, this data tends to show that registered Democrats are more eager to vote this year than registered Republicans and registered independents.

Max Linn, who was kept out of last week’s Florida gubernatorial debate by a State Court of Appeals, won a federal court order today at approximately 5 p.m. He then participated in tonight’s debate, which was sponsored by MSNBC.

Linn’s new lawsuit had first been filed in state court in Hillsborough County (Tampa), but attorneys for the debate sponsor demanded that the case be moved to federal court. The federal court hearing was at 4:30 pm, and Judge James Wittemore, a Clinton appointee in Tampa, issued a ruling in Linn’s favor shortly afterwards. Chris Matthews was the moderator.

A Zogby poll for the US House race, 22nd district, shows that Libertarian hopes of actually electing a member of the US House seem wildly optimistic. This is the district represented by Tom DeLay until April of this year. The poll shows that Bob Smither, the Libertarian, is only at 5%, even though his only ballot-listed opponent is a Democrat. A Houston city councilwoman is the Republican write-in candidate.

Missouri has two statewide offices on the ballot. A poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV, released October 30, shows these results:

US Senate: Republican 47%, Democratic 47%, Libertarian 2%, other and undecided 4% (a Green is also on the ballot).

Auditor: Democratic 45%, Republican 40%, Libertarian 2%, Green 1%, undecided 12%.

Missouri law requires a party to poll 2% in any statewide race, at either of the last two elections, to remain on the ballot. Libertarians got over 2% in 2004 so their ballot status is not at stake this year. Greens need 2% in one of these two races in order to remain on the ballot. Greens in Missouri have never polled 2% in any statewide race; even Nader in 2000 only got 1.63% in Missouri. In Missouri, the Green Party is called the Progressive Party, since another group (which is not on the ballot) already had title to the name “Green”.

Voters in 9 states are voting on ballot measures that would alter election laws. Instant-Runoff Voting is being considered in two cities in California (Oakland and Davis), Minneapolis, and Pierce County, Washington (which includes Tacoma).

Massachusetts is voting on whether to legalize fusion and make it easier for minor parties to remain ballot-qualified.

Rhode Island is voting on whether to let ex-felons who have been released from prison to register to vote, even if they are on parole or probation.

California is voting on whether to implement public funding for candidates for state office. The formula is discriminatory in favor of Republican and Democratic candidates, as opposed to all other candidates.

Arizona is voting on whether to use all-mail voting, as Oregon currently does.

Florida voters will decide whether to require all ballot measures to receive 60% in order to pass, but Colorado is deciding on whether to make it easier for initiatives to qualify (by somewhat relaxing the “same-subject rule”). Oregon is voting on legislative term limits. Thanks to Professor Michael McDonald for most of this information.

Federal courts in Ohio took the rare action of issuing orders on a weekend, October 28-29. As reported earlier, a U.S. District Court had blocked Ohio’s law on ID for absentee voters. One reason for this is that Ohio drivers licenses have two distinct numbers on them, one in large print and one in small print. Ohio requires absentee voters (voting by mail) to include the smaller-print drivers license number (not all counties have been enforcing this law). Many absentee ballots were being rejected because they were accompanied by the larger-print number on the drivers license instead of the smaller-print number.

Secretary of State Ken Blackwell decided not to fight the stay. However, Ohio’s Attorney General then filed an appeal of the stay anyway, saying he was representing the legislature, not the Secretary of State. The Attorney General’s appeal to the 6th circuit was filed after hours on Friday evening, and it was accepted by the 6th circuit on Sunday, October 29. The 6th circuit said it would explain its action later.

The Wyoming Tribune-Eagle published a poll on October 29 for the U.S. House seat. The results: Republican Barbara Cubin 44%, Democrat Gary Trauner 40%, Libertarian Thomas Rankin 5%, undecided 11%.

The Libertarian Party is the only party that has been on the ballot for US House in Wyoming since 1988. The party’s past showings for that office have been: 1988 1.1%, 1992 2.9%, 1994 5.5%, 1996 3.9%, 1998 3.5%, 2000 3.0%, 2002 3.3%, 2004 2.8%.

On September 7, the Maine Supreme Court ruled that parties are free to choose substitute nominees who are not members of that party. In July 2006, the Republican who had won the primary for State Senate, district 10, had resigned. The Republican Party then tried to replace him with John Arsenault, who was a Democrat (however, he was in the process of changing his registration to “Republican”). Maine’s Secretary of State, a Democrat, refused to allow the replacement. However, the Court ruled that no law prohibits a qualified party from choosing a non-member as a replacement nominee. Arsenault v Secretary of State, 905 A 2d 285.

The Court did not mention that in 1986, the US Supreme Court had said in Tashjian v Republican Party of Connecticut that the First Amendment protects a party’s right to nominate a non-member.

California has a program under which high schools and middle schools (grades 7-12) may study a current election, and then the students vote in a mock election. The Secretary of State received these results this year on October 24, and his web site now shows the statewide results. 545 schools, with 235,547 participating students, voted as follows for Governor and US Senator:

Governor: Democratic 34.5%, Republican 32.7%, Peace & Freedom 15.6%, Green 8.9%, Libertarian 4.8%, Constitution 3.5%.

US Senator: Democratic 38.5%, Republican 22.0%, Peace & Freedom 17.5%, Green 11.4%, Libertarian 6.1%, Constitution 4.5%.

The Peace & Freedom Party has women candidates for both offices. All of the other candidates for these offices, except the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, are men. Thanks to Irv Sutley for this information.

It is quite possible that minor parties could win state legislative seats in 5 states this year.

In Indiana, Rex Bell, a Libertarian, is in virtually a 3-person tie with his Democratic and Republican opponents in the 54th district, according to a poll paid for by the Libertarian Party.

In Maine, Representative John Eder, a Green, is in a 2-person race in the 118th district, and Eder is likely to be re-elected.

In Montana, Rick Jore, of the Constitution Party, is in a 2-person race and is likely to defeat the incumbent Democrat who defeated him two years ago (in 2004, there was a Republican in the race also).

In Utah, Ed McGarr, of the Constitution Party, is in a 2-person race with a Republican, in the 58 district in Orem. The Republican candidate defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary. The incumbent has now endorsed McGarr. Furthermore, some financial improprieties committed by the winner of the Republican primary are coming to light. McGarr is advertising on the radio.

In Vermont, the Progressive Party is virtually certain to win at least five or six seats, and will probably will more. Also in Vermont, 5 Libertarians also won the Republican primary and odds are good that at least one of them will win.