It is fairly likely that the proportion of votes cast for minor party and independent candidates for the top-most offices next week will be the highest percentage in a mid-term year since 1914.

In 2002, the proportion of voters choosing a minor party or independent candidate for the top-most office on the ballot was 5.3%. That was the highest such percentage since 1934, when 5.6% of voters voted “other”.

With minor party and independent candidates (for the top-most office) polling so well in the populous states of Texas and Illinois, and very well in California and Florida, and ahead of average in Ohio, it is likely that the national percentage will exceed 5.6%. If so, 2006 will be the best mid-term year for “other candidates” since 1914.

“Top-most” office means Governor, in the 37 states that are electing Governors this year. In the other states, it means U.S. Senate. If neither Senator nor Governor is up, it is whatever office is listed at the top of ballots.

Also, it is likely that fourteen or fifteen minor party candidates for state legislatures will be elected.