If Mr. Giuliani somehow manages to obtain the GOP nod (which looks very unlikely now), the Republican Party will most likely break into pieces.

I’ve been watching these presidential races since ‘64, and this one is the toughest to handicap. If I had to guess today, I’d say Romney will be the nominee, with Huckabee having an outside shot. I’m amazed that Fred Thompson has run such a bad campaign.

Phil Sawyer responds:

So have I. Starting out in political life as a Republican (before going through many subsequent changes), I fervently supported William Warren Scranton for president in 1964. Even if I had been old enough to vote, though, Governor Scranton was not on the ballot in California for the GOP primary election (I would have voted for Governor Nelson Rockefeller if I could have). For the November general election, I completely supported Senator Barry Goldwater (though still not old enough to vote). I am not making any prediction about who will end up with the GOP nod, this time, other than that there will be plenty more surprises in store for us and that the party may not stay in one piece no matter who comes out on top (thanks to the Bush/Cheney administration and all the rest of the neo-conservatives).

Steve Rankin wrote:

Phil, which party do you see replacing the GOP as No. 2? The GOP’s rank-and-file definitely looks to be aging.

Phil Sawyer answers:

What I think will happen is that five groups will be in a great struggle to replace the Republican Party in second place and that it will be much more clear by 2012 which one will come out on top by 2016: Constitution Party; Green Party; Libertarian Party, a group that includes part or all of the Reform/Independence/Unity08 forces; and a group that includes part or all of the Peace and Freedom Party/Vermont Liberty Union Party/ Socialist Party USA forces.

Not only will there be a fierce battle for the second place partisan slot but all of this will be based on an even more fierce ideological struggle that will be a reflection of the warfare between monopoly capitalism/imperialism at its epitome (led by the bourgeoisie)and economic, environmental, and political democracy (led by the proletariat).

Again, I believe it’ll be Romney, with Huckabee having an outside shot at the nomination.

The likelihood is great that I’ll back a third party or independent candidate, as I’ve been voting for third parties since ’88, when I voted for Ron Paul. Paul and Fred Thompson are the only ones in the current field that I could support, and, barring a miracle, neither of them will be the GOP nominee.

McCain’s “dark babies” had little to do with his losing. Rather, he had the same problem in 2000 that he has today: being out of step with rank-and-file Republicans.

will: I don’t see how you can link Huckabee with Thompson, since Huckabee is a big-government guy masquerading as a Republican. (He plays the guitar… Slick Willie plays the sax.)