Major news media have said consistently that if Mayor Mike Bloomberg runs for president, he needs 74,108 signatures in Texas. However, that is only true if he uses the independent procedure. If he is the nominee of a party, he only needs 43,991 signatures. Furthermore, if he is the nominee of a party, the signatures are due at a later date than the May 12 independent deadline.
However, parties that intend to petition in Texas this year were required to tell the Secretary of State (no later than January 2) that they intend to petition this year. Parties that did file the form, and which would probably want to nominate Bloomberg (should he run), are the Reform Party and the Texas Independence Party. The form submitted by the Reform Party was filed by Beverly Kennedy; the form submitted by the Texas Independence Party was filed by Linda Curtis.
I can not imagine Mike Bloomberg allowing himself to get caught up with the Newmanite/Fulanite Independence Party thing? He is so powerful I have no doubt that his people vet this sort of stuff. If he takes on the IP nomination I would imagine he does so based the the idea that his money could buy him the supporters that coud then take over the IP? I mean, not his money exactly; but his money’s ability to rapidly mobilize people.
Although Lenora Fulani has won her lawsuits against being expelled from the Independence Party of New York, she has no power in the state leadership of that party. Nor does she have any special connection with the Reform Party of Texas.
Michael Bloomberg has said over and over again that he will not be a candidate for president this year. If Unity08 does not decide to stop petitioning and support Senator Obama, the best candidate for the Independence/Reform/Unity08 forces would be former Senator Gary Hart. However, I do not think that he would run against Mr. Obama. People need to stop singing “Yankee Doodle Dandy” and let Mayor Bloomberg get back to taking care of New York City.
Should Bloomberg enter the race as an independent he will have no difficulty obtaining petition services to get on the ballot in Texas as an independent versus a party nominee. Kinky Friedman obtained 137,000 valid petition signatures for independent candidacy for Governor. And at the same time the state comptroller also obtained 108,000 valid signatures for the same race/office.
Unless Bloomberg’s express desire is to promote/facilitate the establishment of a third party and down ballot third party candidates in later election years then frankly it only becomes cumbersome for Bloomberg to become involved in a party nomination process.
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Petition signers must not have participated in the primaries. In 2006, this simply meant skipping the gubernatorial and other primaries, none of which were hotly contested. Both Friedman and Strayhorn encouraged their supporters to stay home (eg. “Save yourself for Kinky”) for the primary. In 2008, with two competitive presidential primaries it will be more difficult to get people to stay home. Since Texas doesn’t have party registration, someone who is “independent” is essentially apathetic and will be more difficult to reach to sign a petition.
Bloomberg also has a liability in that he is from New York City. In Texas, an ad for a product uses the line “New York City, get a rope” in reference to a product that is manufactured up North. Whatever their other weaknesses might have been, Friedman, Strayhorn, and Perot were not considered foreigners.
The point is that he won’t have any problem getting on the ballot through petitioning. He can buy ballot access with a swarm of professional petitioners. Yes, he may have a carpetbagger label put on him by some, but it can easily be donw.
Your proposition that indpendents are apathetic doesn’t hold water. The supporters for Kinky were 40% Dem 40% Rep and 20% independent. There would be many people possibly excited and interested in signing a Bloomberg Independent petition. Depends greatly on if the Dem and Rep nominees are “chosen” by the early March primary in Texas. Texas’ March primary usually makes it a scenario that it doesn’t matter by that time who Texas votes for and interest is mild by unapathetic Reps and Dems. EXCEPT this year there might still be a two or three way fight at that point and Texas’ winne-take-all primary for 140 delegates could be the deciding factor. One can only hope so.
Texas does not have party registration, but a voter becomes “affiliated” by voting in the primary. With the one-sided races in many areas, someone who doesn’t vote in the primary is essentially saying, “I’ll wait until November when I will see who the Republicans (or Democrats) put up, and I’ll vote for him, for the Libertarian, or skip the race.
That is, non-participation in the primary is more likely an act of apathy than an exhibition of political independence. But Bloomberg is going to have to find these apathetic people to sign his petition. Contrast to that to 2006, when people knew that both Friedman and Strayhorn were running, and they (1) made sure they were registered to vote; and (2) actively abstained from voting in the primary.