The Washington Secretary of State’s office is almost finished tallying the results of the August 2008 primary. According to the Secretary’s web page, only 200 ballots remain to be counted. The Secretary of State’s web page also shows that the 2008 turnout was 42.58% of registered voters. That figure might change a miniscule amount when the absolute final tally is finished.
In the last gubernatorial primary in Washington state, in 2004, the Secretary of State’s webpage shows the turnout was 45.14%. In 2004, Washington state used a classic open primary. In 2008, for the first time, Washington used the “top-two” primary. “Top-two” proponents always argued that “top-two” would surely produce a higher turnout than any other type of primary. Secretary of State Sam Reed, who supports “top-two”, had predicted before the August 2008 primary that turnout would be 46%.
At least *some* gerrymander district incumbents *surely* will have some real opposition in November — and thus *may* even lose.
NO primaries are needed.
Equal nominating petitions for ballot access in general elections.
P.R. legislative and Approval Voting – executive / judicial.
“At least *some* gerrymander district incumbents *surely* will have some real opposition in November — and thus *may* even lose.”
And…THAT…is one of several reasons why the legislature will, sooner or later, get rid of it.
Will the WA Grange go the full route and have a petition to abolish all primaries and have equal nominating petitions, P.R. and Approval Voting — regardless of the party hacks in the gerrymander WA legislature ???
ALL States have ANTI-Democracy minority rule gerrymander legislatures — since day 1 on 4 July 1776.
A plurality of the votes in a bare majority of the gerrymander districts is about 25 percent minority rule = de facto monarchy [party hack boss dictator – tyrant] / oligarchy [party hacks in a conspiracy group — aka party hack caucus in a legislative body].
Much too difficult math for the party hack U.S.A. Supremes to understand.
P.R. — Total Votes / Total Seats = Equal votes needed for each seat winner (via candidate rank order lists to transfer surplus and loser votes).
Both indirect majority rule and minority representation. ALL voters get represented.
Democracy NOW — before it is too late.
U.S.A. politics is now as in Germany in 1929-1933 — SUPER-dangerous — between EVIL leftwing and EVIL rightwing MONSTERS.
The Washington Grange has repeatedly said that it has no interest in any alternative voting systems like Instant-Runoff Voting.
Another thing the Washington Grange has no interest in is a voluntary Democratic/Republican blanket primary– which, in my view, would be vastly better than the “top two” monstrosity.
Several years ago, I presented the Grange with a plan to run slates in the Dem and Republican primaries of pro-blanket primary candidates for precinct committee officer. The Grange said “thanks, but no thanks.”
This, BTW, would be similar to the current Democratic/minor party blanket primary in Alaska.
In 2004, the primary was September 14, which was after the national political conventions, which may have piqued interest. This year, it was August 19, during the Olympics. An overwhelming share of voters cast their vote by mail, so during the time most voters might have been filling in their ballot, they may have been watching the Olympics on TV.
In 2004, there was a contested race for the Democrat gubernatorial nomination. In 2008, there weren’t any seriously contested “party nominations”. In 2004, there was also a US Senate race, though the nominations were not really contested.
There was a huge drop in turnout in King County between the two elections. King County has about 30% of Washington registered voters. Voter turnout was up outside of King County from 44.6% to 46.0%. In King County it declined from 46.4% to 34.9%.
If we include the other two large counties, Pierce and Snohomish, which had smaller declines in voting, we find a decline in the Big 3 (which have 1/2 the state’s voters) from 45.6% to 37.5%, while for the rest of the state, the turnout increased from 44.6% to 48.0%.
The number of ballots cast was up in 31 of 39 counties. If we look out at the 14 counties which had turnout lower than the statewide rate in 2004, the number of votes cast increased by an average of 22% between the two years (25% if we exclude Pierce County).
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There was actually a huge increase in votes actually cast for candidates.
In 2004, 1,480,247 voters cast a ballot. But only 1,365,389 (92.2%) picked a party, and of those only 1,303,024 (88.0%) voted in the gubernatorial race.
While voters who declined to pick a party may have voted in non-partisan Top 2 primaries for Superintendent of Public Instruction and state supreme court justices, it is unlikely that many did so, given the overall number of votes cast for those down ballot races (there were around 1 million votes cast in the Superintendent race and under 900,000 in the state judicial races).
It is unlikely that many partisans skipped the gubernatorial race. For down ballot statewide offices that only had one major candidate from the Republican and Democratic parties, the number of votes cast was about 1.050 million, or about 80% of the gubernatorial vote).
I suspect that a great number of voters accidentally failed to pick a party. Others may deliberately have done so (this was the first statewide election following the 9th circuit’s decision that the blanket primary was unconstitutional). Others may have selected a party, but then attempted to cross-vote in the primary of another party.
15,268 voters picked the Libertarian party. But only 13,069 voted for one of the two candidates in the gubernatorial race (wasn’t this the only statewide primary race ever for Libertarian in Washington?). Around 12,700 Libertarians continued on down the ballot voting for the unopposed Libertarian candidates. Pretty extraordinary to have 1/7 of the voters who picked the Libertarian party to not vote for any Libertarian candidates.
In 2008, 1,455,507 voters cast a ballot. 1,442,138 of those (99.1%) cast a vote in the gubernatorial primary. IOW, there was actually a 10% increase in votes cast for governor.
While there was some drop off for down ballot races, to around 1.350 million, this was about 1/3 of the drop off of 2004. Voting in the down ballot races which were not contested was up around 28 to 31%> The AG’s race was up 13%, even though both parties had contested nominations in 2004.
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In 2004, the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was contested by Christine Gregoire and Ron Sims, who was (and is) the King County chief executive. In the very extremely close 2004 general election, Gregoire received 36.8% of her vote in King County, vs. 25.6% for the Republican Dino Rossi. A race that ended up in a statistical tie statewide, had a 140,000 Democrat plurality in King County.
In the 2004 primary, Sims received 48% of his vote from King County, while Gregoire received 34.1%. 37% of votes in the Democratic primary were from King County vs. 23% of votes in the Republican primary.
So in 2004 you had a heavily Democratic county, with a contested primary featuring a popular county leader which pushed the turnout. In 2008, without those factors, the turnout apparently collapsed.
King County is one of two counties in Washington that continue to have in-person election day voting. In 2004, roughly 55% of the voters requested “absentee” ballots (they can do this on a permanent basis). Turnout (turnin?) among those voters was about 60%, while for other voters it was 29%.
In 2008, the share of “absentee” voters had increased to 65%. Turnout dropped to 45% among these voters. But among the other voters, turnout dropped to an abysmal 17%. Presumably, these voters need to be pushed to vote. There was nobody doing the pushing in 2008.
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Summary:
So despite a move of the primary to August and a lack of compelling or interesting races, there was a 10% increase in votes that were actually cast for a gubernatorial candidate.
#6: “… the 9th circuit’s decision that the blanket primary was unconstitutional).”
That case was not finalized until February 2004, when the US Supreme Court refused to hear the state’s appeal.
WA top 2 primary mini-analysis – Aug 2008
D and/or R in all general election districts — except as noted below.
State senators – 26 gerrymander districts in 2008
7 x 1 = 7 = auto winners
14 x 2 = 28
5 x 3 plus = 20 (10 lost)
26 Tot 55 – 10 = 45 Genl elect cands
2 D in 2 districts
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State Reps — 98 gerrymander districts
17 x 1 = 17 = auto winners
56 x 2 = 112
25 x 3 plus = 91 (41 lost)
98 Tot 220 – 41 = 179 Genl elect cands.
2 D in 6 districts
2 R in 1 district
1 D and other in 4 districts —
37 Pos. 2 Libertarian Party
38 Pos. 1 No Party Preference
40 Pos. 2 Green Party
49 Pos. 2 Independent Party
The FACT that 4 non-D/R persons made it to the general election ballots WILL end any MORON court cases attacking the top 2 primary.
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Basically — a business- as- usual gerrymander primary — with very predictable gerrymander district results in Nov. 2008.
About 30 percent of the voters will elect a bare majority of the party hack winners = indirect minority rule.
*Possible* party hack changes IF and WHEN gerrymander incumbents die, resign or retire.
DEMOCRACY NOW via 100 percent P.R. — before it is too late.
NO primaries are needed.
Total Votes / Total Seats = EQUAL votes needed for each seat winner via vote transfers using candidate rank order lists.
Re #7. The Washington legislature in early 2004 passed a Top 2 primary, with Pick A Party as backup. Governor Locke vetoed the Top 2 provisions, and as a result the September 2004 primary was the first statewide primary using Pick A Party.
As noted, almost 12% of voters failed to (successfully) pick a candidate in the 2004 primaries. If you count the number of votes actually cast in the gubernatorial primary, participation was up 11% over 2004.
ps King County voters gave initial approval to adoption of non-partisan Top 2 elections for county officials. Under King County’s charter, the voters in November will have to formally approve this reform.