In No-Incumbent Presidential Elections, Republicans Win 86% of the Time

October 4th, 2008

Starting with 1860, the year the Republicans indisputably became a major party, there have been 14 presidential elections in which the incumbent president was not running for re-election. Of those 14 elections, the voters elected a Republican 12 times. The only exceptions to the general rule that Republicans always win when no incumbent president is running, are 1884 and 1960. So, if Obama wins, his win will be historic for many reasons, including this one.

4 Responses to “In No-Incumbent Presidential Elections, Republicans Win 86% of the Time”

  1. Mike Gillis Says:
    October 4th, 2008 at 6:26 pm

    Can you list these elections? I’d be interested in seeing which ones they are.

  2. Richard Says:
    October 4th, 2008 at 7:03 pm

    1860, 1868, 1876, 1880, 1884, 1896, 1908, 1920, 1928, 1952, 1960, 1968, 1988, 2000.

  3. Mike Gillis Says:
    October 4th, 2008 at 9:12 pm

    I getcha. When you say “no incumbent”, you’re not counting elections where a sitting VP runs for president.

  4. Alex Says:
    October 4th, 2008 at 9:47 pm

    No, he’s counting the VP’s as no incumbent (see ’60, ’88, and 2000).