Comments on: Daily Kos Tracking Poll Shows Gender Shift in Barr Support

By: Chris Cole

Chris Cole — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 13:42:39 +0000

I am the Libertarian candidate for the US Senate in North Carolina. I don’t buy the argument that polls don’t report third-party numbers because they are consistently within the margin of error. My poll numbers have been consistently ABOVE the margins of error (about 6% in most polls), yet journalists have reported on those polls and EDITED MY NUMBERS OUT. That indicates a deliberate effort to withhold information.

By: Larry West, MCSD

Larry West, MCSD — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 12:26:39 +0000

Polls are also meaningless if they included the minor candidates in states where it is impossible to vote for them (e.g., Oklahoma).
Speaking of which, I just got an automated poll phone call that asked me to press 1 for Obama and 2 for McCain (no other choices). I pressed 3 and it told me to press 1 for Obama and 2 for McCain. I then pressed 0 hoping for a live operator to complain to, but again it told me to press 1 for Obama and 2 for McCain. At that point, I hung up.

By: Deran

Deran — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 23:44:53 +0000

It would be interesting to see a comparative study of the polling of third party/independent presidential candidates, and their actual vote percentage, over the last 12 years, say. See if polling numbers for third party and independent candidates usually relate to actual vote totals, and at what ratio, or whatever.

And the Obama people claim their is the un-polled cellphone-only allegedly generally young, “progressive-minded” potential voters; who the Obama people, of course, insist is a few extra percent all for Obama. But, perhaps they also include a higher than average percentage of voters looking out side the mainstream choices for “change”?

By: svf

svf — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:50:33 +0000

I agree that being consistently within the margin of error is questionable, but it is interesting that Barr (and Nader) have remained consistently at 2% week after week rather than fluctuating between 0% and 5%.

By: Ron

Ron — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:33:28 +0000

It’s the mustache, or conservative female voters who don’t like the idea of being told what to do with their bodies by the Republicans.

But really David may be right, the numbers are so low that it may be meaningless. Although many other polls have shown Nader and others polling higher than this.

By: Coming back to the LP

Coming back to the LP — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:20:32 +0000

We should expect at least 96% of the votes will be wasted on either John McStupiderThanEvenBush or Barack OBwannaBeAnotherFDRfascistsocialist.

By: carolo

carolo — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:24:38 +0000

Oh Great. All we need in this very tight election is some wasted votes.

By: Coming back to the LP

Coming back to the LP — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 17:21:35 +0000

It’s that sexy mustache!

By: David Gaines

David Gaines — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 16:30:28 +0000

Given the margin of errors involved, this poll doesn’t really show anything regarding Barr OR Nader:

“The margin for error is 3% for the overall tracking.
The margin for error is 5.1% for individual day tracking.”

One reason (among many) why minor party candidates are left out of polls is that they so frequently show up with response totals that either barely register or are well within the margin of error. To draw any kind of firm conclusion about someone’s support because over a three-day period it went, for example, from 1% to 2% in a poll with a three-day margin of error of 3% is essentially meaningless.