On October 31, SurveyUSA released a New Hampshire poll. For Governor, it shows: Lynch (Dem.) 65%, Kenney (Rep.) 28%, Newell (Libertarian) 5%, undecided 3%.
For U.S. Senator: Shaheen (Dem.) 53%, Sununu 40%, Blevens (Libertarian) 6%, undecided 2%.
The poll also asked about the presidential race, but only reported: Obama 53%, McCain 42%, “Other” 3%, undecided 2%. See here for more information, including an interesting breakdown of voters by age. If the Libertarian Party polls 4% for either Governor or U.S. Senator, it will regain its party status, which was lost in November 1996.
2008 looks like the rebirth of a new and stronger Libertarian Party:
We could pick up ballot access in New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Are there any other likely states?
More Parties, more Democracy!
More Candidates, more Democracy!
How ever, another view point is that [except for Ralph Nader] 2008 will be viewed as a gi- normous disappoint for non Dems and non Ralph Nader. The non Maverick new and unimproved John ‘Songbird’ McCain and the clueless moose hunter from Point Frozen North will bomb in all but the most Red [Neck!] states.
New Stronger Libertarian Party? Look for more ‘reform party style’ splinters, Boston Tea or straight Coffey. The Russ ‘Follow Me guys —I’m right behind you’ Verney squandered Bob Barr 2008 mis-step will stink for years to come. And bitter reaction to the original odor will stink things up even more.
I take no pleasure in saying these things, including the ‘I told ya so, I told ya so’ of Alan Keyes being on the California [and other populated Bible Thumping] ballots, and Chuck Baldwin no where in sight.
After 1996’s trial run and the clown college attempts of 2000 and 2004, Uncle Ralph seems to have muddled through. Ross Perot’s beat up legacy, aged party hack Ted Weill of Mississippi for President? Oh for the return of the Gong Show!
Obama will do well, Nader has done well, but every one else has little to cheer about —-if they are honest!
The nation of my birth, going to Haydes in a hand basket! A grimy, tattered hand basket!
Obama, Nader, who in their right mind would want to be Commander In Chief on such a down ward slope??
————-Donald Raymond Lake
If Barr gets one-half of 1% in New Mexico, the party will remain on the ballot for another four years. Neither Michael Badnarik in 2004, nor Harry Browne in 2000, managed to poll as much as one-half of 1% in New Mexico, although Browne had done it in New Mexico in 1996.
If Barr gets 1% in Maryland, that will keep the party ballot-qualified for another two years.
If Barr gets 2% in either Iowa or Kentucky, that would make the Libertarian Party ballot-qualified for the first time in either of those two states. If he gets 3% in Arkansas, that would make the party ballot-qualified for the first time in that state.
If he gets 3% in Massachusetts, or if the party’s US Senate gets 3%, that will make the party ballot-qualified in that state for 2010.
If he gets 5% in Arizona, the party wouldn’t need to worry about keeping its registration above 2/3rds of 1% in order to remain on. If he gets 5% in Illinois, that would make the party ballot-qualified for statewide office only for 2010. If he got 5% in Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, that would qualify the party.
Generally, though, vote tests in most states apply to any statewide candidate. In states I didn’t mention, there are other statewide Libertarians who are virtually certain to get enough votes in any event.
Looks like good news for the Libertarians.
Here are my predictions for 2008. (EV) McCain-280, Obama, 258. Nader-1.5 M. Barr-1.25 M. McKenney-300,000. Baldwin-100,000. Keyes-40,000. Paul-25,000.