Minor Party, Independent Presidential Candidates May Have Tipped 4 States
November 4th, 2008Apparently, as of 10:20 Pacific time, there are four states in which no presidential candidate won as much as 50% of the vote. According to this excellent Associated Press website, those 4 states are:
1. North Carolina: Obama 49.9%, McCain 49.5%, Barr .6%
2. Montana: McCain 48.6%, Obama 48.1%, Paul 2.1%, Nader .9%, Barr .3%
3. Indiana: Obama 49.9%, McCain 49.0%, Barr 1.1%
4. Missouri: McCain 49.6%, Obama 49.1%, Nader .6%, Barr .4%, Baldwin .3%.
As the night goes on, these percentages will change slightly.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:36 am
Indiana is not so. Lake County was the difference on a late tally that was 70%+ Obama and put him over the top.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Hey TPW and IPR types, where are those near double figures for Nader, Barr, Baldwin, and Left Hook Lucy McKinney?
Told ya so, told ya so, told ya so!
———–Donald Raymond Lake
November 5th, 2008 at 6:08 am
For any of those states to have tipped the other way would require assuming implausible behavior by the voters. There were no spoilers in the 2008 presidential election.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:15 am
One thing to think about is that for people that voted for a third party candidate, that is who they wanted to vote for. I was not taking a vote away from McCain because he never had my vote to begin with.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:31 am
Georgia Libertarians had a great night. In Georgia candidates must get 50% to win an election and avoid a runoff. It appears that Allen Buckley (U.S. Senate) and Brandon Givens (Public Service Commission) both caused Dec. runoffs.
Also, additional BIG news is that John Monds (candidate for Public Service Commission, which is a statewide election) broke the 1,000,000 vote mark! PLUS, he won at least two large Metro Atlanta counties (DeKalb and Clayton).
Results are here: http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/swall.htm
November 5th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Richard:
Don’t forget Nebraska’s second district (Omaha) electoral vote. Latest results show McCain ahead by about 500; Nader has 1502; McKinney 292.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:27 am
I think that the minor party vote needs to be at least twice the difference between the old party candidates for this to have been likely, since many minor candidate supporters would not vote for an old party candidate. And with relatively strong independent candidates all over the ideological spectrum, it’s even harder to know.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:21 am
96% of precincts reporting
Saxby Chambliss Republican 1,838,787 49.9%
Jim Martin Democratic 1,720,931
46.7%
Allen Buckley Libertarian 125,998 3.4%
wow, can’t get any closer than that… I guess it depends on absentee ballots, etc… hopefully they tilt DEM and force that runoff…
November 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
The most plausible case can be for North Carolina, but that is more in terms of two candidates who were kept off the ballot (McKinney and Nader). Had they been on the ballot and polled in similar numbers to Virginia or South Carolina they would combined received about 0.6%. Baldwin would more likely have drawn from Barr.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Thanks to the Libertarians, the Dems will have Prez-elect Obama in GA making sure Chambliss loses that seat in the run-off.
The Repugs have no one but themselves to blame for not adopting instant runoff voting.