Mark Noble, an Ohio Libertarian, has just completed a study of the voters who chose a Libertarian Party primary ballot last month, in Franklin County, Ohio. Franklin County is Ohio’s second-most populous county, and includes Columbus. In Franklin County last month, 1,351 voters chose a Libertarian primary ballot.
The analysis shows that in 2008, 22% of those voters had chosen a Republican primary ballot; that 27% had chosen a Democratic primary ballot; and that 41% had not voted in any party’s primary. Erickson hopes to do further research on this for counties other than Franklin County. In 2008, the only parties that had primaries in Ohio were the Democratic and Republican Parties.
Story is also posted on the Libertarian Party of Ohio web site http://www.lpo.org
And we continue to hear from the media and the major parties that we (3rd parties) “hurt” or “steal” votes from one of the majors. We all know the real truth: we pull from left, right, the CENTER, and those voters that have previously just given up.
Austin: state capitol and U of Texas
Columbus: state capitol and Ohio State U
And to be fair, Mark Noble, Franklin County Libertarian Party Chair, did the analysis. I just sent it out to everyone! 🙂
Thanks, Mathew. I fixed the post.
The 2008 primary included the presidential primary.
22% + 27% + 41% = 90%???
Don’t forget those that during an Ohio primary some people choose Unafilliated ballot– non party and issues-only.
#6 How were voters in the 2nd chart (2000-2008) classified?
Thanks for the question, Jim. When comparing the 2008 to the 2010 primaries, the numbers were 22% Republican, 27% Democrat, 41% not voted, and 10% issues only ballots.
From the 2000 to the 2010 primaries, there were 34% Republican, 25% Democrat, 30% not voted, and 11% issues only ballots.
Hope that clarifies things, thanks!
Actual charts and detail is posted on http://www.lpo.org
#8 and #9. I’m still not understanding the methodology.
You start with those who voted in the Libertarian Party primary in Franklin County in 2010. 59% voted in the 2008 primary (in Franklin County?). Were the other 41% registered in Franklin County in March 2008, or does that also include new registrants to the county. Does Ohio track inter-county transfer of registrations, or do they essentially look like new voters when they register in Franklin County?
Then comparing 2000-2008 to 2010. Were voters classified by their most prevalent party? What if someone voted in the Republican Primary in 2006, the Democratic Primary in 2008, and the Libertarian Primary in 2010.
Response from Mark, if you would like more information, he can be reached at mark.noble@lpo.org.
You start with those who voted in the Libertarian Party primary in Franklin County in 2010. 59% voted in the 2008 primary (in Franklin County?). Were the other 41% registered in Franklin County in March 2008, or does that also include new registrants to the county.
It could include a handful of people who were not registered but I believe it’s too small to be statistically significant. Since this data is just intended to provide a ballpark I didn’t check this on the 2008 data, but I did attempt to check for it in the data back to 2000 by at least checking what year people registered and excluding them from votes before that. I also attempted to track voting history to find out if people were predominantly R’s, D’s, Issues Only, or Non-voters.
I can provide the Excel file (XLSX) I created if anyone would like to increase the complexity of MY calculations. Of course, I think it’d be more scientific for others to obtain the data from the Franklin County Board of Elections website and run their own calculations on the same data, then we can compare those results with my estimates.
Does Ohio track inter-county transfer of registrations, or do they essentially look like new voters when they register in Franklin County?
I’d imagine they treat them as new voters. The data in the file lists the date they were registered and a history of party ballot selected in primaries and whether or not they voted in other elections dating back to 2000. Voters registered before 2000 are listed as registering to vote in 1900.
Then comparing 2000-2008 to 2010. Were voters classified by their most prevalent party? What if someone voted in the Republican Primary in 2006, the Democratic Primary in 2008, and the Libertarian Primary in 2010.
That’s exactly what I tried to do. I did some calculations that checked the year they registered to vote, how many times they could have voted in a primary, and based on that used actual primary voting data to “weight” the voters with a likely party affiliation. I used this weighted value to determine who was a R, D, non-voter, or Issues only voter for the final chart.