No one can know exactly how many voters will vote in each state on November 6, 2012. But if one uses the November 4, 2008 election data to estimate how many voters will vote in each state, one can calculate the percentage of voters who will see various presidential candidates on their ballots.
For Gary Johnson (assuming he is on in Pennsylvania, which is likely) the figure will be 95.08%. For Jill Stein, it is 83.10%. For Virgil Goode, it is 49.91%. Corresponding data for all presidential candidates will be in the October 1, 2012 printed Ballot Access News.
How does that compare with the last few times?
Better for LP & GP. Way worse for CP.
Can you be specific with percentages as in article above?
The CP was on the ballot in 37 states in 2008. This time it is 26 or 27.
I know. I was interested in the percentages of voters, as in the example of this article above, especially for 2008 but also for 2004, etc.
Found 2008 in BAN archives:
Bob Barr, Libertarian, 94.5%
Ralph Nader, independent, 85.2%
Cynthia McKinney, Green, 70.5%
Chuck Baldwin, Constitution, 59.8%
I actually think Johnson and Stein will surprise and get over 1 million votes this election. Over 1%, maybe even 2%.
Goode will have a larger bulk of his vote for CA, VA, OR, and NV.
#6, good research! I was too lazy to search for it. #7, even though the Constitution Party is ballot-qualified in Oregon, the Oregon Constitution Party didn’t nominate Goode.
except for the Libertarian Party , it looks like the Third Party choice shrunk this election. its a shame.
I’m telling you guys, the Presidential and VP candidates should get automatic ballot access in their home states and the neighboring states. This idea would make third party and independent candidates especially to pay all their attention to tougher states with horrible ballot access.
I’ve also came up with this idea when it comes to private funding. OK, the average American should give no more than $2,300 to either a Republican or Democrat, maybe for third party and independent candidates that should be higher since they don’t get any corporate or union money?
10 –
Oooh…that’s a GREAT idea! I wonder how many “1st” and “2nd” party Senators and Congressmen will vote for a law to implement it? Probably the same number that would sponsor that legislation. For an estimate, count the number of sentences in my post and subtract four.
#7 Goode will have only a few thousand write ins from california at most since he has no ballot access there (the California AIP faction endorsed the America’s Party candidate Tom Hoefling instead of Virgil Goode).
In 2008 thestate totals for the Constitution party presidential nominee which were in excess of 10,000 votes were in Michigan and Utah
The percentage of the vote doesn’t mean that much unless you know what percent of the voting population knows the candidate. For example if some body get .5% well that sucks if you look at the whole population. But a lot of 3rd party candidates aren’t known by the whole population. If I get 500,000 votes out of 1,000,000 voters who know me, suddenly the low percentage of the total population takes on a new meaning.