On November 1, CNN/ORC released a poll for the Colorado presidential race that includes five candidates. The results for likely voters are: Obama 48%, Romney 47%, Johnson 4%, Stein 1%, Goode under 1%. For registered voters, the results are: Obama 51%, Romney 41%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%, Goode 1%, none-other-undecided 2%. Thanks to Mike for the link.
Ballot Access News
Edited By Richard Winger
If Johnson got 0 votes everywhere else, I would still consider the campaign a success. 4-5% will lose it for somebody and force attention to third parties.
It is interesting that all third parties tend to do better in polls of registered voters than they do in polls of likely voters.
Johnson’s support in statewide polls has fallen considerably over the past few months. A recent poll showed him getting only 5% in New Mexico, where previously he had been polling double digits their. Alaska will likely be his strongest state, i still think he will break 1 million votes and beat Ed Clark’s national percentage record (1.06% in 1980) but he will likely not exceed 2 percent nationally. I don’t see anyway Johnson will beat Ed Clark’s state level percentage record though (11.66% in Alaska during the 1980 Election). I think Goode has a much better chance of breaking his party state level record than Johnson has of his.
In my opinion, the proper response to a pollster is a polite None of Your Business.
#4 It is most literally their business if they run a polling agency for a living
Mr. Fenwick, it may be their business to ask. But it’s our right to say NoYB. Semantics aside, polling is one of the insidious aspects of modern politics that is used by professional campaign managers to train candidates what to say to get elected (and to try to “manage” voters’ expectations). How is that positive with regard to democratic theory? Do you want a candidate to tell you what she or he honestly believes and feels or what she or he thinks you want her or him to say?
@ #2:
An interesting point. It may be that registered voters who express support for a third party candidate are less likely to vote if it appears that their candidate is not making any headway.
@ #3:
Support for third party candidates will general drop as the campaign progresses. The media concentrate more and more on the major party candidates, and reinforce the “wasted vote” syndrome.
#6 While that may be true in national elections, in local elections polling can be very useful to find out what issues an otherwise complacent electorate cares about and wants addressed. A true representative would conduct polls constantly to discover what issues he/she should be addressing and how he can most effectively represent the people in his or her constituency.
@#8 only 4 days left for it to progress and many people have already voted. At this point I am glad that Gary and Jim are sprinting.
Are the major media going to be reporting third party votes on election day? If so, which third party candidates will be included in their reporting?