This Washington Post article of October 4 lists twenty-four Republican members of the U.S. House who are either willing to end the government shutdown with no concessions from Democrats, or leaning that way.
Of the twenty-four Republicans, twelve are from closed primary states, four are from semi-closed primary states, seven are from open primary states, and only one is from a state that uses a top-two primary.
The U.S. House has 232 Republicans, so, as of today, 10.3% of them are willing to take the “moderate” position in the budget dispute.
Among the 232 House Republicans, 24 are from states that use a top-two primary. This includes 15 from California, 4 from Washington, and 5 from Louisiana.
The percentage of Republicans from top-two states who take the “moderate” position is only 4.2% (when an individual divides the number one by the number 24, the resulting percentage = 4.2%). But the percentage of Republicans from states who don’t use top-two, and who are supporting the “moderate” position, is 11.1%. This suggests that top-two systems do not produce more “moderate” politicians.
The only Republican from a top-two state who is taking the “moderate” position is California’s Devin Nunes. He has been in Congress since 2002. He is so popular that in 2010, no one filed to run against him, except a write-in candidate. In 2012, only one person, a Democrat, filed to run against him. The top-two system that California started using in 2012 is not in the slightest bit responsible for Nunes having been elected.
The list of 12 “moderate” Republicans from closed primary states includes 5 Republicans from Pennsylvania, 3 from New York, 3 from Florida, and one from Idaho (Idaho Republicans use a closed primary even though none of the other Idaho parties do so). The list of 7 Republicans from open primary states includes 4 from Virginia, 2 from Arkansas, and one from Minnesota. The list of 4 Republicans from semi-closed primary states includes 3 from New Jersey and one from West Virginia.