The Mischiefs of Faction, a political science blog about political parties, has this piece by Professor Seth Masket about the possibility that the Republican Party might split and a new party might emerge. Masket does not think this is likely, at least in the short term, but it is interesting that he even wrote about the idea.
If the founders of Americans Elect had done what they could to keep their party on the ballot in the 29 states in which it qualified in 2012, that might have been the genesis for a new major party. It is still qualified in California and four other states, but if it doesn’t increase its registration in California by the beginning of 2014, it will lose its spot on the ballot in that state. The drive to put the party on the California ballot required 1,030,040 valid signatures, and probably cost $2,500,000.