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California Gubernatorial Poll

On May 28, a Golden State Poll commissioned for the Hoover Institution was released for California’s June gubernatorial primary. The results: incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown 36%, Republican Tim Donnelly 12%, Republican Neel Kashkari 5%, other and undecided 47%. The election is June 3.

Most notably, the poll showed that independent voters prefer Tim Donnelly to Neel Kashkari by a margin of 3:1, whereas Republican only prefer Donnelly to Kashkari by a margin of 2:1. This finding contradicts everything that supporters of the top-two system have been asserting ever since 2009, when the legislature passed the bills putting Proposition 14 on the June 2010 ballot. Elite supporters of Proposition 14 asserted over and over again that closed and semi-closed primaries produce “extremist” candidates, whereas a top-two primary would boost moderates.

This post does not assert either Tim Donnelly or Neel Kashkari is a “moderate” or an “extremist”, but the news media, when discussing the California gubernatorial race, do frequently say that Donnelly is an “extremist” whereas Kashkari is a “moderate.”

Also noteworthy is the fact, utterly ignored by California’s major media, that California’s closed and semi-closed primaries in the last 50 years have produced moderate Republican gubernatorial nominees. Starting with 1962, these moderate nominees have been Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan (who signed a bill making California one of the first states with mostly legal abortion, and who raised taxes), Houston Flournoy, Evelle Younger, George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Meg Whitman. The only Republican gubernatorial nominee who might fairly be described as “extreme” was Bill Simon in 2002. The blanket primary in 1998 also produced a candidate sometimes labeled “extreme”, Dan Lungren.

If anyone can find a link to the May 28 Golden State Poll, please include it in a comment. The source of the information in this blog post is several newspaper articles.

5 Responses

  1. Demo Rep

    NO primaries.

    P.R. and nonpartisan App.V. — pending advanced head to head math.

  2. George Knightley

    Perhaps if moderates would like to see more moderates elected they should campaign.

  3. Demo Rep

    The CORRUPT top 2 system is one more DIVIDE and CONQUER machination —

    i.e. how many plurality EXTREMISTS will be nominated due to the division of the alleged *moderates* ???

    I.E. some DEVIL morons from Hell did the EVIL *reforms* about the CA gerrymander commission and the top 2 primary.

    The People of CA will be paying the price.

    P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.

  4. I realize it’s rare for voters to vote “strategically,” but is it possible that independent voters who plan to support Gov. Brown in November are, instead of voting for him since his big victory in the primary is inevitable, voting for the primary opponent who will be most easy for Brown to defeat in the general election? That would make sense although I admit it is unlikely.

  5. Jim Riley

    http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/

    There is a press release on the first page, with a link to the full results at the bottom of the release.

    The poll was conducted in conjunction with YouGov so it is an online poll, albeit with an attempt to demographically match the population.

    They asked some specific questions about the Open Primary. 41% said that it made them more interested in the candidates, 40% about the same, and 9% less interested. Curiously, independents were more likely than partisans to indicate lessened interest.

    Republicans did support Donnelly in greater numbers than independents 22:11 vs. 15:5. The difference was that 25% of independents supported Brown. Those independents might be expected to support Kashkari over Donnelly.

    But there is also a huge undecided vote.

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