Virginia held two elections for U.S. House, 7th district, on November 4, 2014. One was for the regular two-year term and the other was for the short term running from November 2014 to early January 2015. The need for the short term special election was because the seat was vacant, because Congressman Eric Cantor had resigned earlier this year, before his term was up.
The Democratic and Republican nominees for both November 2014 elections were the same two individuals. But the regular election had a Libertarian on the ballot, whereas the special election only had the two major party nominees.
The vote in the regular election was: Republican Dave Brat, 148,026; Democrat John K. Trammell, 89,914; Libertarian James A. Carr, 5,086; miscellaneous write-ins 325.
The vote in the special election was: Brat 148,841; Trammell 91,236; miscellaneous write-ins 1,236.
Because the two major party nominees were the same individuals in both races, this juxtaposition of two elections gives evidence of how most voters who vote Libertarian (at least in this part of Virginia) would vote, if no Libertarian were on the ballot. It appears that probably 26% of Carr’s voters voted Democratic in the special election which didn’t list Carr; 16% voted Republican; and the other 58% of Carr’s voters either cast a write-in vote, or chose not to vote in the special election. Here is a link to the Virginia State Board of Elections’ web page showing election returns.
The “experiment” would have been better if the Repu-Demo spread had been close. Libe voters couldn’t have changed the outcome in the three-way contest and they probably knew it.
Since the race wasn’t close, then wouldn’t people feel more free to vote for the Libertarian, knowing it wouldn’t throw the race?
I think it depends on the individual election, the individual candidates, and the philosophical makeup of the voters. There are some elections where a 3rd party (or Independent) will draw votes from either a Democrat or Republican, and there are some elections where they will not.
The Democrats and Republicans will continue to use these arguments – mainly to discourage voters from “wasting” their vote on a 3rd party or Independent candidate.
What we have to do, is convince the voters, they only waste their vote, when they vote for someone who does not represent them. If we can ever get the voters to understand this, then all the distractions of the Democrats and Republicans will fall on deaf ears.
I long for that day.
Libertarians don’t steal votes from either side. The vote does not belong to anyone except the individual casting it. The candidates must earn the vote of the individual; it is not “thrown away”. What arrogant presumption to think that votes belong to one candidate or the other. This is why there is a growing movement for a third party, because the other two just don’t get it.
“This is why there is a growing movement for a third party…”
PD. Just as soon as that 3rd party comes along – and I’m talking about a 3rd party that stands for common sense, does not want to take us back economically to 1776, and realizes that all levels of government are established to “help” the people when the people are unable to “help” themselves, then I’ll join such a 3rd party.
As of right now, there is no such 3rd party on the national scene. Until I see the evidence of such a 3rd party, I’m going to remain as an Alabama Independent.
@Alabama Independent
If you want a party that believes in the almighty power of all levels of government to help people do anything they need help with, you have two very well-established and successful options to choose from. 😉
This is fascinating, since it’s normally almost impossible to have a “controlled experiment” of this nature in which all other variables remain unchanged. Up until now we’ve had to rely on occasional exit polls to try to infer how Libertarian candidates are impacting races, but such polls are of questionable statistical validity since the sample size of Libertarian-oriented voters is fairly small. Do LP candidates hurt Republicans more than Democrats or vice versa or neither? It’s been very hard to tell.
Now we have hard evidence in at least one major test case that the majority of voters who prefer LP candidates would refuse to hold their noses and vote for the Republican or Democrat in the absence of the Libertarian. Those are voters the major party candidates never had anyway. Of the remaining LP voters, the Democrat would benefit as the “lesser evil” slightly more than the Republican. So the long-held stereotype that Libertarians are siphoning off Republican votes and costing Republicans close elections is not the case, and in fact could be just the opposite. (The actual impact one way or the other will probably depend on the location and specifics of each race, the natures of the major party candidates, the campaign themes which the LP candidate emphasizes, and other random factors.)
It’s also noteworthy that the net difference between the Democrat and Republican second-choices of Libertarian voters was only about 10% of the total Libertarian vote. If that is representative, it further undercuts the whinging by the loser in a close races where the LP candidate’s vote somewhat exceeds the victory margin of the Democrat or Republican. The LP candidate’s vote total would have to be about ten times the victory margin for a 10% net difference to alter the outcome.
This helps counter the “wasted vote” syndrome and the “lesser of two evils” syndrome. It may also give pause to major party politicians (especially Republican ones) who spend a great deal of money and effort to keep Libertarians off the ballot out of a misplaced fear that LP candidates are costing them elections. Perhaps they’ll realize that their actions and monetary investments might really be counterproductive, or at the very least inconclusive, and thus better directed elsewhere.
It appears around 40% of supporters of the Libertarian candidate for Senator, Robert Sarvis, voted for Brat. About 10% of Warner voters also switched to Brat, who ran well ahead of Gillespie.
So your experiment measures what the residual Libertarian voters did. Perhaps. There could also be some Cantor diehards, who refused to vote for Brat, but were unwilling to vote for a Democrat, except to serve the last few months of Cantor’s term.
AndyCraig:
While the “two very well-established and successful options to choose from,” i.e., the Democratic and Republican Parties, do stand for some things that I stand for, they also are opposed to some things I am opposed to
For example, both the Democrats and Republicans support the Federal Reserve System and would strongly oppose any effort to abolish it. I do not support the Federal Reserve System as it is currently established.
For example, both the Democrats and Republicans support U.S. membership in the United Nations and would strongly oppose any effort to withdraw from it. I do not support the United Nations and believe it’s headquarters in New York City should be removed from our country.
So then, it is obvious I would not find a favorable political home within either the Democratic or Republican party as your reply suggests.
Therefore, I ask you, what am I to do?