Can One Predict the Winner of the U.S. House Majority by Counting the Nominees of Each Party?

There is always variation in how many nominees each major party runs for the U.S. House. Some years the Democrats have more nominees; other years the Republicans have more. This year, there are more Democratic nominees for U.S. House across the nation than there are Republicans.

I was curious to see if one could predict which major party will win a majority in the House, just by checking to see which major party had the most nominees. The results are that generally, the major party with the most nominees will win the House majority. But the idea isn’t foolproof.

For the years 1994 through the present, the major party that had the most nominees went on to win a majority, except in 2000, 2014, and 2016. So the theory only worked in 13 out of 16 election years.

Club 20, Prominent Civic Group in Grand Junction, Colorado, Invites Independent Gubernatorial Candidate Into Debate

On September 19, a gubernatorial debate was held in Grand Junction, Colorado. The independent candidate, Greg Lopez, was invited into the debate, but none of the four minor party gubernatorial candidates were invited. The sponsor was Club 20, a prominent business and civic group that traditionally sponsors candidate debates. The debate was not televised live but it will be available on youtube.

This article explains the odd logic used by Club 20 when it decided whom to invite. The four minor parties candidates were nominated by the Libertarian, Constitution, Unity and Approval Voting Parties.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Agrees with Lower Court that Andrew Tupone Should Not Be on Ballot for U.S. House, 7th District

On September 17, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court affirmed a ruling of the Commonwealth Court that Andrew Tupone should not be on the ballot for U.S. House, 7th district. See this story. His ballot label is “Green”, yet the Pennsylvania Green Party, which is not a ballot-qualified party, argued that he is not a bona fide member of the party. The court has not yet explained its decision. This decision appears to establish name protection for unqualified parties in Pennsylvania, which has not existed in the past.