Calmatters Carries Factually Incorrect Story About California Top-Two

Calmatters, a prominent website about California government and politics, has this op-ed about the California top-two system. The authors support top-two. At the very first sentence, they make a factual error. They say that California had a closed primary before the voters passed top-two in June 2010. Actually the Democratic and Republican Parties let California independent voters vote in their congressional and state office primaries in all years 2002 through 2010. The Secretary of State’s website verifies this.

Another flaw with the op-ed is that it implies that top-two is the only system that permits independents to vote in partisan primaries. But many states without top-two let independents vote in partisan primaries. Either states can hold a classic open primary, in which any voter is free to choose any party’s primary. Or, they can provide by law that independents can choose any primary ballot. Or, they can do as Louisiana has long done, and still does for state office: abolish the primary entirely, and only have a general election, with a run-off if no one gets 50%.

Dueling Websites in Massachusetts Battle Over Top-Two

Massachusetts voters will see an initiative on their November ballot for a top-two system.

Here is the website of the supporters, yeson3ma.org.

Here is the website of the opponents, votenoon3mass.com.

Also, Progressive Massachusetts has a portion of its website in opposition to Question Three. It has links to scholarly articles that find top-two does not improve elections. See it here.

Top-two has been defeated by voters seven times, and has passed twice, in California in 2010 and Washington in 2004. Its losses were in California in 2004, Oregon 2008, Arizona 2012, Oregon again 2014, South Dakota 2016, Florida 2020, and South Dakota 2024. In all these ballot battles, supporters of top-two always significantly outspent opponents, sometimes even ten to one.

UPDATE: Massachusetts sends a pamphlet “Information for Voters” to every registered voter, with arguments for and against each statewide ballot measure. Here is the portion of the booklet about Question Three.

U.S. District Court Freezes Lawsuit on Republican Party Primaries Until June 2027

On September 18, U.S. District Court Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk stayed all proceedings in Hunt v State of Texas, n.d., 2:25cv-200, until June 2027. This is the lawsuit in which the Texas Republican Party argues that the Constitution protects its desire for a closed primary. Texas has always had open primaries. The judge made this move on his own volition; neither side had asked for a delay. The judge feels the 2027 session of the legislature might pass a bill letting parties close their primaries. Here is his ruling.

Can One Predict the Winner of the U.S. House Majority by Counting the Nominees of Each Party?

There is always variation in how many nominees each major party runs for the U.S. House. Some years the Democrats have more nominees; other years the Republicans have more. This year, there are more Democratic nominees for U.S. House across the nation than there are Republicans.

I was curious to see if one could predict which major party will win a majority in the House, just by checking to see which major party had the most nominees. The results are that generally, the major party with the most nominees will win the House majority. But the idea isn’t foolproof.

For the years 1994 through the present, the major party that had the most nominees went on to win a majority, except in 2000, 2014, and 2016. So the theory only worked in 13 out of 16 election years.

Club 20, Prominent Civic Group in Grand Junction, Colorado, Invites Independent Gubernatorial Candidate Into Debate

On September 19, a gubernatorial debate was held in Grand Junction, Colorado. The independent candidate, Greg Lopez, was invited into the debate, but none of the four minor party gubernatorial candidates were invited. The sponsor was Club 20, a prominent business and civic group that traditionally sponsors candidate debates. The debate was not televised live but it will be available on youtube.

This article explains the odd logic used by Club 20 when it decided whom to invite. The four minor parties candidates were nominated by the Libertarian, Constitution, Unity and Approval Voting Parties.